Predictions?! Yes, round 1 is over, but I'll still offer my forecast for the event as I thought about it last night. That way when it goes completely wrong, we can all have a good laugh. So here goes:
Topalov: His form since the Kramnik match hasn't been magnificent, but he's still a clear favorite if he's in good form. There's also an extrinsic motivation for Topalov to do well: if he can regain the top rating, it will put pressure on FIDE to find a way to include him in the world championship later this year; if he continues to fall into the pack, leaving him out becomes easier.
Mamedyarov: Clearly the second favorite, and a player who, along with Aronian and Radjabov, is waiting in the wings for his chance to become one of the "three tenors". I don't see Mamedyarov finishing below second.
Adams: He has been near the top of the pile for a decade or so, and while his results are always solid, he never seems to win super-events. I don't see that changing here.
Kamsky: I'm still not sure that this is the mid-90s edition of Kamsky, in part because he still doesn't play that regularly. He's getting close though, and if he's in good form, his openings are ready and T & M falter, he might pull it off.
Nisipeanu: A very entertaining player who burst on the scene in the 1999 FIDE k.o. in Las Vegas, he remains relatively untried at the elites-only level. On a personal level, having just reviewed Bauer's
The Philidor Files, I'm hoping to see Nisipeanu trot out the Philidor against the top guys.
Sasikiran: It will be interesting to see India's #2 in big-time chess. I would be surprised if he (or Nisipeanu) threaten, but the experience will be invaluable.
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Now to round 1.
Round 1Results:
Topalov - Nisipeanu 0-1
Adams - Sasikiran 1/2-1/2
Mamedyarov - Kamsky 1-0
Topalov-Nisipeanu started the tournament in a newsworthy way, as Topalov overpressed, missed a tactic, and lost. This used to happen to Topalov pretty regularly, prior to his big surge, and has been happening again this past year. His maximalism often breaks his opponents down, but against strong defenders and when he's off-form he sometimes self-destructs.
Adams-Sasikiran was a relatively quiet affair. The game was balanced for a long time, and Adams' attempt to complicate with 33.Rxd5 was nicely handled by Sasikiran: draw.
Mamedyarov-Kamsky was a peculiar game. Kamsky played a rare line in the Slav, and quickly found himself in a very difficult position. Rather than suffer passively, he chose to sac a piece. He was objectively lost as a result, but the position was just messy enough to keep the game going, and it proved psychologically astute as well. With a decisive material advantage, Mamedyarov wanted to avoid complications at all costs, even when it probably would have sped up the win. The result, I suspect, was that he became a bit lazy in his calculations and let Kamsky get away with more than he should have.
Even so, Mamedyarov was still winning before his 35th move, but Kamsky was still kicking. One of Kamsky's great strengths has always been his fighting spirit, and it was clear that Mamedyarov would have to put him away - Kamsky wasn't going to do the job for him. Unfortunately, Mamedyarov picked about the worst time to do something active, and fell for a tactical trick that cost him two pieces for a rook. This was probably the result of time trouble, and the resulting position was only a bit better for Mamedyarov. And then it ended: 1-0! I'm guessing this was a win on time; if not, Kamsky's resignation was the bizarre conclusion to a peculiar game.
Trivia note: after 12 moves, Mamedyarov had moved all eight of his pawns. Is this a record, at least for big-league chess?
Standings after Round 1:
Mamedyarov, Nisipeanu 1
Adams, Sasikiran .5
Kamsky, Topalov 0
Pairings for Round 2:
Nisipeanu-Kamsky
Sasikiran-Mamedyarov
Topalov-Adams
Games
here.