Elista Candidates, Pre-Round 2 Statistics
In my brief preview of the Round 2 matches, I offered predictions but neglected to give the head-to-head stats of the players' previous meetings. Here they are:
Aronian - Shirov: Aronian 2-1 (+1 =2)
Leko - Bareev: Leko 12-9 (+7 -4 =10, but 4 of those wins - unanswered - were in rapid)
Grischuk - Rublevsky: Grischuk leads, 5-3 (+2 =6, but one of the wins was in a blitz game)
Gelfand - Kamsky: Gelfand leads, 10-8 (+5 -3 =10; 1 win apiece last year, with the remaining games dating to 1996 and earlier)
Aronian - Shirov: Aronian 2-1 (+1 =2)
Leko - Bareev: Leko 12-9 (+7 -4 =10, but 4 of those wins - unanswered - were in rapid)
Grischuk - Rublevsky: Grischuk leads, 5-3 (+2 =6, but one of the wins was in a blitz game)
Gelfand - Kamsky: Gelfand leads, 10-8 (+5 -3 =10; 1 win apiece last year, with the remaining games dating to 1996 and earlier)
Related Posts (on one page):
- Elista Candidates, Round 2, Game 1: The Players Cooperate
- Elista Candidates, Pre-Round 2 Statistics
- Elista Candidates, Round 1, Tiebreaks
- Elista Candidates, Round 1, Game 6
- Elista Candidates, Round 1, Game 5
- Elista Candidates, Round 1, Game 4
- Elista Candidates, Round 1, Game 3: The Halfway Point
- Elista Candidates, Round 1, Game 2
- Elista Candidates, Round 1, Game 1
Posted by Dennis Monokroussos on
Tuesday June 5, 2007 at 6:47pm
I wondered whether there will be more or less draws than in the semi-finals. I guess there are two possibilities:
1. The players are stronger, and they make fewer errors, so there will be more draws.
2. The players are tired after their exertions in the semi-finals, and they will not have done as much preparation, so they will make more mistakes, and therefore, there will be less draws.
Given these considerations, Kamsky, Grischuk and Leko will be fresher than Gelfand, Rublevsky and Bareev. Aronian and Shirov are about equally tired.
Hwoever, if we take preparation time into account, then Kamsky has less of an advantage, than the Grischuk and Leko, because it wasn't clear who his opponent would be until the day of the playoffs.
So that gives us definite wins for Leko and Grischuk, an edge for Aronian over Shirov (due to rating), and the most difficult to predict Kamsky-Gelfand? Their rating difference is only 30 points, which is not very significant. Who played better in the semi's? Yes Kamsky's results were excellent, but Bacrot played quite badly, whereas Kazimdzhanov played good tough chess. Very tricky!