The Chess Mind

And they're off! Most of today's games were drawn, but almost all were prolonged struggles. That was true of the two winners' games, too. Aronian defeated Carlsen with the black pieces, when the youngster's mistimed d4 gave Aronian a strong queenside initiative. The other winner, Grischuk, convincingly outplayed his opponent from start to finish, helped along by Malakhov's dubious ...Be5xg3.

The games, with comments, are here.

No one got revenge today, but three more players took a one-point lead: Leko, Kamsky (on time in an almost surely drawn position), and Bareev:

Match Standings after Game 2:

Aronian - Carlsen 1.5-.5
Shirov - Adams 1-1

Leko - Gurevich 1.5-.5
Bareev - Polgar 1.5-.5

Ponomariov - Rublevsky 1-1
Grischuk - Malakhov 1.5-.5

Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov 1-1
Kamsky - Bacrot 1.5-.5

Games here.

Going into the rest day, three matches are tied, three have one player up a game, and two are virtually decided. Let's take these score groups in order.

First, the tied matches. Gelfand-Kasimdzhanov and Adams-Shirov have only seen draws so far, but it's not for want of trying. Gelfand's game saw the super-sharp Moscow variation of the Semi-Slav, and after Kasimdzhanov's strong 17...c5 Gelfand had to work very hard to keep the position from getting out of hand. Likewise, Adams-Shirov was a sharp Archangelsk; unfortunately, the complications quickly petered out into a forced draw. The BIG game was Carlsen-Aronian, which shows why I hated this pairing - the youngster is getting stronger practically every day. It's a shame if either player misses Mexico City, but that's just what has to happen. In an English-cum-4.a3 QID (without a3), Carlsen gained a structural advantage that he was able to convert beautifully.

In the up-a-game category, we have a similar pattern: two matches maintaining the status quo with a draw (Grischuk-Malakhov and Bareev-Polgar) and one Johnny-come-lately (Rublevsky-Ponomariov). Grischuk enjoyed a very slight advantage against Malakhov's Berlin Defense, but the latter equalized easily and the game was a relatively quick and painless draw. Bareev found a very important new move in a sharp Panov/Botvinnik Caro-Kann and equalized with ease. First Bareev and then Polgar enjoyed a very slight edge in the resulting endgame, but neither player was in much danger and a draw was the normal result. Finally, Ponomariov decided he'd prefer to lose than accept a draw, and self-destructed in a drawn queen ending. Rublevsky isn't exactly a favorite in this world championship cycle, but he's certainly strong enough to cash in on freebies.

Finally, Kamsky (against Bacrot) and Leko (against Gurevich) took two-point leads with wins today. Bacrot was down a pawn but with good drawing chances until blundering in time trouble, while Leko won a model ending against Gurevich's French. These two matches are almost surely over.

Match Standings after Game 3:

Aronian - Carlsen 1.5-1.5
Shirov - Adams 1.5-1.5

Leko - Gurevich 2.5-.5
Bareev - Polgar 2-1

Rublevsky - Ponomariov 2-1
Grischuk - Malakhov 2-1

Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov 1.5-1.5
Kamsky - Bacrot 2.5-.5

Games here.

Finally, since I referred to Hamlet in my last post, I thought I'd continue the literary theme in this one. One can imagine FIDE and Kalmykian President Iljumzhinov telling the audience at the opening ceremony, while pointing at the natives, something like this: "Whatever you've done to Elista - these, my brothers - you've done it unto me." (Or, more darkly, one can imagine Iljumzhinov hearing this, or something a lot like it, on some future day.)

Today's round was a big one, with six decisive games out of eight - none favorable to a player behind in a match.

Two matches ended today, and two others have the trailers on life support. Leko concluded his match when Gurevich blundered a pawn in an approximately equal ending. Likewise, Kamsky wrapped up his contest with Bacrot when the latter took too many liberties trying to create play in a drawable middlegame. (In fairness, Bacrot did create play, but it was against his own king.) Likewise, Malakhov tried to avoid a drawish ending against Grischuk, but his "success" meant a second win for his opponent, who leads 3-1. Also leading 3-1 is Bareev, who convincingly outplayed Polgar in an old-fashioned line of the Queen's Indian.

In the more closely contested matches, Aronian bounced back against Carlsen, reclaiming a 1-point lead with a positional crush. Rublevsky maintained his 1-point lead against Ponomariov in a long, always balanced draw. The Adams-Shirov match saw its first decisive result when Shirov blundered away a sure draw trying to squeeze a little something out of the position. Finally, Gelfand and Kasimdzhanov remain deadlocked, though it looks like the former may have missed a singe-move opportunity for a clear advantage.

Match Standings after Game 4:

Aronian - Carlsen 2.5-1.5
Adams - Shirov 2.5-1.5

Leko - Gurevich 3.5-.5 (finished)
Bareev - Polgar 3-1

Rublevsky - Ponomariov 2.5-1.5
Grischuk - Malakhov 3-1

Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov 2-2
Kamsky - Bacrot 3.5-.5 (finished)

Games here.

One more down, five more to go.

By drawing with Malakhov, Grischuk joined Kamsky and Leko in the winner's circle, waiting to see who he'll play in round 2. Five matches remain unresolved, two of which are tied. In the most exciting match, featuring (as I've said already) the worst pairing, Carlsen came back with another brilliant victory to tie his match with Aronian. Polgar also fought back against Bareev, but she remains a point down in that match.

The other three contests were cleanly drawn: neither Ponomariov nor Shirov were able to make up their 1-point deficit to Rublevsky and Adams, respectively, while the Gelfand-Kasimdzhanov match had its fifth consecutive draw.

Match Standings after Game 5: (The player due White in the last game is given in parentheses.)

Aronian - Carlsen 2.5-2.5 (Aronian)
Adams - Shirov 3-2 (Shirov)

Leko - Gurevich 3.5-.5 (finished)
Bareev - Polgar 3-2 (Bareev)

Rublevsky - Ponomariov 3-2 (Rublevsky)
Grischuk - Malakhov 3.5-1.5 (finished)

Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov 2.5-2.5 (Kasimdzhanov)
Kamsky - Bacrot 3.5-.5 (finished)

Games here.

Five down, three to go.

The leaders played shaky chess, to put it kindly, but two of three made is safely to the next round. Rublevsky very confidently achieved his draw against Ponomariov, but Bareev's passive play (with White) against Polgar forced him to defend for a while before pulling out the draw. And poor Adams played a miserable game against Shirov, losing a pawn for nothing by move 20 and going down without a fight. They'll play tiebreaks tomorrow, as will Gelfand and Kasimdzhanov, who drew today quickly, and Aronian and Carlsen, who also drew, but only after a spirited battle.

My predictions for tomorrow: Kasimdzhanov (he might be the #2 rapid player in the world, after Anand), Shirov (if Adams could play so badly today, I don't see him dealing with the pressure more successfully tomorrow), and Aronian (but I wouldn't bet a nickel on it!).

Match Standings after Game 6:

Aronian - Carlsen 3-3
Adams - Shirov 3-3

Leko - Gurevich 3.5-.5 (finished)
Bareev - Polgar 3.5-2.5 (finished)

Rublevsky - Ponomariov 3.5-2.5 (finished)
Grischuk - Malakhov 3.5-1.5 (finished)

Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov 3-3
Kamsky - Bacrot 3.5-.5 (finished)

Games here.

Dear FIDE,

When it comes to the candidates and the world championship, keep matches and eliminate tournaments, please!

Regards,
DM

We definitely got our money's worth out of round 1, which concluded a little while ago with Aronian finally slaying Carlsen (the Norwegian Nuisance)! The first round of tiebreakers were indecisive: Aronian won the first game, drew the next two, but blew an easy draw in game four with 82...Qc1+?? (82...Qe4, Qg2, Qa8, Qg1 and Qe1 all drew. But more to the point, a move like 81...Qg6 would have kept him out of all trouble in the first place. Still, Carlsen deserves a lot of credit for keeping what would normally be a dead drawn endgame alive as long as he did.) So it was on to glorified blitz games: 5' + 10". Aronian won the first with White, to take the lead for the fourth time in the match, and this time it was enough. Carlsen tried to create a messy position in the next game, but Aronian handled the complications and won that one, too.

Aronian will have a couple of days off to recover before playing Shirov, who routed Adams in their rapid playoff. (Shirov won the first two games and drew the third.) I don't remember Adams as a nervy player, but he completely collapsed in this match.

The third of our tiebreak matches, Gelfand-Kasimdzhanov, had the result I originally predicted, but certainly not by the expected route: Gelfand won the tiebreak 2.5-.5, winning both games with the black pieces. It's not that Gelfand is a slouch in rapid; he's not. But Kasimdzhanov's rapid results this decade have been world championship quality, so it's a mild surprise.

Match Results:

Aronian - Carlsen 7-5
Shirov - Adams 5.5-3.5

Leko - Gurevich 3.5-.5
Bareev - Polgar 3.5-2.5

Rublevsky - Ponomariov 3.5-2.5
Grischuk - Malakhov 3.5-1.5

Gelfand - Kasimdzhanov 5.5-3.5
Kamsky - Bacrot 3.5-.5

So, how did Monostradamus do? Reasonably well, but nothing to brag about. I was right about Aronian, Leko, Grischuk, Gelfand and Kamsky; and I was wrong about Shirov, Bareev, and Rublevsky. I did think the Shirov match was pretty much a pick-'em, so I don't feel bad about that one. Bareev's success was in part a matter of his superior preparation, so that was explicable, too. But Rublevsky's win I still don't understand. Even with the benefit of hindsight, I can't produce a story that explains how he was able to defeat a younger, higher-rated opponent with more experience in top-level play. That's why they play the games! Speaking of which, we have the...

Round 2 Pairings: (Matches start Wednesday)

Aronian - Shirov
Leko - Bareev
Grischuk - Rublevsky
Kamsky - Gelfand

I'm predicting the first-named player in every case, and think the first three matches will be relatively easy. The last match is the pick-'em, but I'll stick with the patriotic choice.

Tiebreak games here, sans comments.

In my brief preview of the Round 2 matches, I offered predictions but neglected to give the head-to-head stats of the players' previous meetings. Here they are:

Aronian - Shirov: Aronian 2-1 (+1 =2)
Leko - Bareev: Leko 12-9 (+7 -4 =10, but 4 of those wins - unanswered - were in rapid)
Grischuk - Rublevsky: Grischuk leads, 5-3 (+2 =6, but one of the wins was in a blitz game)
Gelfand - Kamsky: Gelfand leads, 10-8 (+5 -3 =10; 1 win apiece last year, with the remaining games dating to 1996 and earlier)

With my predictions, that is. My "sure" picks Aronian, Leko and Grischuk all won (it didn't hurt that they all had White), while the iffy match's game was drawn.

Game 1 Results:

Aronian - Shirov 1-0
Leko - Bareev 1-0
Grischuk - Rublevsky 1-0
Kamsky - Gelfand 1/2-1/2

On the other hand, only one of the wins (Grischuk's) was even slightly one-sided. Shirov devised a fine exchange sacrifice, but gradually drifted into a hopeless ending. Bareev was clearly better against Leko, but rapidly and radically self-destructed. And while Rublevsky was worse throughout against Grischuk, he still had decent chances to survive until near the end. As for Kamsky-Gelfand, the American got nothing from the opening and the game was quickly drawn.

Games here.